A lose-lose game
Naseer Memon | October 30, 2016 | Published in The News. India and Pakistan are entangled in a fresh spate of border conflict. At the edge of war, both the countries have severed even cultural ties by banning movies and TV plays aired from other side of the borders. Mired in chronic penury, illiteracy and morbidity, both India and Pakistan boast their nuclear arsenal amid hysteric war anthems. Media incessantly sprinkles fuel to keep the flame of hatred alight. Amid all this mania, almost one and a half billion people remain on the tenterhooks. A foreboding Global Hunger report predicts that India and Pakistan are among the countries where hunger would relentlessly hover even after 2030, rendering a vital indicator of sustainable development goals unattained by the two countries. Perennially obsessed with war euphoria, both countries flippantly ignore their ignominious profile on human development index. Imprisoned to conventional security paradigm, both neglect the state of human security in their countries that claims millions of impoverished lives every year. Spending more than 50 billion dollars on defence, India is the country where more than a quarter million farmers committed suicides between 1995 and 2010. A former prime minister of India, Manmohan Singh, once bemoaned that malnutrition is a national shame for his country. Pakistan, likewise, is the land of an appalling state of disparity where 20 per cent richest consume seven times more than the poorest 20 per cent population. A cursory look at the human security landscape of the two countries exposes socio-political fault lines that should merit urgent attention of the two governments elected by people. Human development imperatives are discriminately treated like a stepchild in both countries. According to the Human Development report-2015 of the UNDP, India ranked at 130thnumber and Pakistan at 147th out of 188 countries. Bragging about their jealously-guarded nukes, both countries seldom repent for abdicating their primary responsibility towards their citizens. 5.6 million children in the primary school age in Pakistan and 2.8 million in India are not going to school. According to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), literacy rate is 55 per cent in Pakistan and the country stands at 160th rung in among all countries of the world. Similarly, a quarter of the Indian population is illiterate. In absolute numbers, India has 287 million illiterate people, which is more than the total population of Pakistan. India and Pakistan spend only 3.8 and 2.4 per cent of their GDPs on education. Current population growth rate has outpaced literacy rate in both countries and universal literacy would remain a forlorn hope in the foreseeable future. This tendency has condemned both countries to perform poorly on the global innovation index with India on 81st and Pakistan even more disgracefully on 131st number among 141 countries. This explains the reason for Pakistan’s conspicuous absence among the top 100 universities of Asia. Health sector performance of both countries is equally disgraceful. According to the World Bank data, mother mortality rate (i.e. deaths of mothers per 100,000 live births) is 174 and 178 in India and Pakistan respectively. Similarly, infant mortality rate (deaths of infants per 1000 live births) is 38 in India and 66 in Pakistan. The two countries are ranked at 143rdand 149th number respectively among 188 countries. Miserly spending 4.7 and 2.6 per cent of their GDPs on health, India and Pakistan invest only US$61 and US$37 per capita on providing health services to their citizens. On the contrary, both countries are very generous in spending on building arsenal and military power. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India’s current year’s allocation for the defence budget is 51 billion dollar and that of Pakistan is 9.5 billion dollar. Total military strength (including active, reserve and paramilitary forces) of India is 4.7 million compared to Pakistan’s total strength of 1.4 million. Per thousand capita military strength of India is 3.9 compared to a twice higher military density of 7.3 in Pakistan. Pakistan and India together are home to 350-400 million poor people, yet both countries feature the list of world’s top ten arms importers. According to SIPRI, India is the second and Pakistan is 10th largest importer of weapons. India annually imports arms worth $3078 million and Pakistan’s arms annual import bill is $735 million. Interestingly, USA is the second largest source of Indian arms imports after Russia. Whereas Pakistan’s largest share of arms imports comes from China. In the race of militarisation and a perennial border tension, both countries have decelerated cross-border business flow. With a gigantic market of 1.5 billion, both countries could have transformed their economic outlook through a robust bilateral trade which is currently harnessed hardly one-tenth of its potential. Peace economy’s dividends would have been enormous compared to the war business which hemorrhages precious resources of both countries. Chinese foreign policy, on the contrary, is rooted in a business driven pragmatism and distinctly demarcates politics and business ties. China has equally strained political relations with India, yet their bilateral annual trade has surpassed $80 billion compared to Pakistan and India’s scant bilateral trade of only $3 billion. China astutely maintains cordial business cooperation with several estranged bedfellows. The US and China militarily abhor each other, yet the US is the biggest trade partner of China and their annual trade volume is well over $520 billion. Japan and China’s discontent is far graver than that of India and Pakistan, yet both countries resorted to forbearance and are currently engaged in an annual trade of over $300 billion. China’s sore relations with Taiwan could not deter their mutual trade of approximately $200 billion annually. Vietnam and China are old adversaries who fought a war in 1979 when China tried to repulse Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia. Both countries are engaged in a high profile squabble in south China sea over Paracel and Spratly Islands. However, a protracted acrimony did not preclude both countries from maintaining trade ties. Their two-way annual trade has reached $66 billion and
Dimensions of poverty
Naseer Memon | July 24, 2016 | Published in The News. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) have released a report “Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan” which depicts a grim picture of social well-being in the country. The concept of poverty has evolved over time. As knowledge about the complexity of human societies is growing, poverty has found new meanings and coping strategies. Starting from the more banal concepts of nature’s curse, inadequate calorie intake and lack of income, the concept has evolved to a lack of choices in various spheres of life. Since poverty has been recognised as a societal and political issue, it has found a central place in the public policy discourse. Chronic resource exploitation, discriminatory political treatment, failure of governance, skewed development priorities, inequalities, unrelenting conflicts, frequent natural and human-induced disasters, protracted denial and violation of human rights and elite-controlled public policy have been recognised as more complex causative factors behind the existence of poverty. The first Human Development Report (HDR) released in 1990 introduced the Human Development Index (HDI). Hence, human poverty was analysed through a more comprehensive framework of human development which is not confined to income and calories intake only. Research has proven that an uptick in the average per capita income does not reflect the true picture of the state of human development in a society. Average income is rather a devious interpretation of social well-being which masquerades pockets of human poverty. Pakistan itself is a case study in this regard. Introductory chapter of the report provides an insight by juxtaposing performance on some of the vital indicators of human development with increase in the income levels. “Between 1990 and 2013, Pakistan’s GDP per capita (in constant 2005 US Dollars) increased from USD 542 to 793, with growth rates averaging around 4 per cent per year. Until 2003, Pakistan was ahead of both India and Bangladesh in terms of its GDP per capita. Moreover, income-based poverty fell sharply in the country, with the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line decreasing from 64.3 per cent in 2001/2002 to 29.5 per cent in 2013/2014. However, all these financial gains could not improve vital social indicators. According to World Bank’s World Development Indicators, despite rapid improvements in immunisation, Pakistan still lags behind coverage rates in South Asia. Compared to Bangladesh, Pakistan started out much better in terms of life expectancy (60 years in 1990) and was second only to Sri Lanka in this respect. Yet, by 2014 life expectancy in Pakistan had merely increased by 2 years. By contrast, life expectancy in Bangladesh rose from 58 to 72 years in the same period. Similarly, Pakistan’s infant mortality rate (IMR) was slightly above that of Bangladesh in 1990, at 106 deaths per 1,000 (as opposed to 100 in Bangladesh). Unfortunately, by 2015 Pakistan was still registering the deaths of 66 infants in their first year, as opposed to 31 in Bangladesh. In fact, Pakistan along with Afghanistan currently has the highest IMR rates of any country in South Asia, all of which register fewer than 50 infant deaths per 1,000. Comparable patterns hold true for maternal mortality, as Pakistan began ahead of all other South Asian nations — with the exception of Sri Lanka — but now it has higher rates than most of the other countries in the region.” Discrepancy between the economic growth and improvement in human development indicators is also corroborated by other similar reports. Human Development Report 2015 revealed the ignominious state of human development in the country. Pakistan stands second lowest on the life expectancy index with 66.2 years compared to 71.6 years in Bangladesh and 69.6 years in Nepal. Pakistan’s infant mortality rate of 69 per 1000 live births is more than twice higher compared to 32.2 in Nepal, 29.7 in Bhutan and 33.2 in Bangladesh. African countries Congo and Cameroon have lower infant mortality rate of 35.6 and 60.8 respectively. Forty five per cent of Pakistan’s children under five years of age are afflicted by malnutrition. The proportion is higher than Bangladesh (41.1 per cent), Nepal (40.5 per cent), Congo (25 per cent) and Nigeria (36.4 per cent). This coincides with higher child mortality rates in the same age group. Pakistan’s child mortality rate of 85.5 per cent is more than twice than that of Nepal (39.7 per cent), Bangladesh (41.1 per cent) and Bhutan (32.6 per cent). The situation in education sector is equally deplorable. Pakistan’s literacy rate 54.7 per cent is lower than that of Bangladesh (58.8 per cent), India (62.8 per cent) and Nepal (57.4 per cent). Similarly, gross enrolment ratio of Pakistan is only 92 per cent, which is the lowest in the region compared to 113 per cent in India, 114 per cent in Bangladesh, 133 per cent in Nepal and 106 per cent in Afghanistan. Primary school dropout ratio of Pakistan is 37.8 per cent which is higher than 33.8 per cent in Bangladesh and 20.7 per cent in Nigeria. The multidimensional poverty report of UNDP has also exposed that rural areas are enduring higher levels of poverty compared to urban areas. The fact is glaringly evident in all provinces. The table explains the incidence of rural and urban multidimensional poverty in every province/region. This disproportionately higher prevalence of poverty in rural areas is a consequence of decades-long misdirected development priorities. Human settlements do not have impervious borders. Urban areas cannot remain insulated of cascading effect of rural poverty. Privation of this staggering proportion in rural areas entails serious socio-political ramifications for urban areas. The prevalent malaise in urban areas is a repercussion of rural exodus. Toxic effects of socio-economic inequalities have already plagued urban centres. A small number of relatively developed cities are exposed to an unsustainable influx of rural communities. Deficit of civic amenities such as education, health and jobs have propelled the exodus of rural population to urban areas in droves. Karachi is a perfect example of this
Monsoon menace yet again
Naseer Memon | July 10, 2016 | Published in The News. Monsoon has already descended on Pakistan. Weather pundits have forecast an ominous monsoon this year with an estimated 10-20 per cent higher rainfall. Considering the experience of devastating floods during recent years, this prediction has created pre-monsoon jitters. Capricious climate has been dodging the weather predictors. Frequency and ferocity of floods have made monsoon a calamitous event in Pakistan for the past six consecutive years. Apocalyptic flood of 2010 has been followed by tormenting floods every year making it an annual feature in the country. Ageing infrastructure, misplaced political priorities, absence of local government system and lack of risk reduction investments are some of the other factors that exacerbated the impact of these disasters. Every year flood impact is cured with short-term remedial measures rather than adopting a sustainable approach. Although frequency and severity of floods have gained momentum during recent years, Pakistan has been facing flood disasters since its creation. According to a report of the federal flood commission, the country has endured a cumulative financial loss of more than US $38.165 billion during the past 68 years. Around 12,177 people lost their lives, some 197,230 villages damaged/destroyed and an area more than 616,598 Sq.km was affected due to 23 major flood events that occurred in 1950, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 19981, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The upcoming monsoon is predicted to possibly bring torrential floods in the mountains of Suleiman range. In 2010, gushing flows of Suleiman range abruptly bloated the flow of Indus deriding all predictions of the volume of flood in Sindh. The province was set to receive a flood of 800,000 cusecs which eventually swelled to over 1.1 million cusecs causing an unprecedented devastation in vast areas on the right bank of Indus. While riverine flood is relatively easy to forecast, spate flows of hill torrents act like a lurking enemy. Pakistan lacks a reliable early warning system to account for torrential floods generated from mountain ranges spread all over Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) takes pains to share regular information on weather outlook, but it lacks paraphernalia for timely early warning. An evasive weather trajectory requires more sophisticated network of radars and other warning systems. The latest flood warning device was installed in 2004 and the oldest one in 1978 in the country. The archaic system needs to be supplanted with modern gadgets to ensure accuracy and timeliness of flood warning. The PMD proposed a project of Rs7 billion to the government to revamp the flood warning system with 21 radars, automation of 100 weather observatories, automatic weather stations and other interventions. However, the government has more pressing priorities — to splash money on fancy projects to hoodwink voters and attract media attention. Weather boss, Ghualm Rasool, informed the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change that 40 districts of Pakistan do not have any early warning system installed. Significance of early warning system is well-recognised in the contemporary world. Research findings of the world meteorological organisation suggest that every dollar ploughed into early warning system saves 36 dollars. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has recently developed a coordinated monsoon contingency plan. However, provinces need to gear up for monsoon frontal onslaught. Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) have a pivotal role in confronting any critical situation in provinces. Districts have to play a cardinal role in case a disaster unfolds. Unfortunately, the District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) are non-existent for all practical purposes. In absence of a functional local government system and dormant DDMAs, communities remain extremely vulnerable to hazards and disasters. DDMAs are a missing vital organ of the disaster management body. There is an urgent need to institutionalise PDMAs and DDMAs on professional footing. The provincial governments ought to empower them administratively and equip these bodies with professional human resource and ample financial resources. Similarly, revitalisation of DDMAs is now long overdue. This is a specialised function and should not be trivialised as merely a seasonal obligation of deputy commissioners, who are already occupied with numerous administrative functions. DDMAs are the foundation tier of the official humanitarian structure and yet ignored by all provinces. Since disaster management is a provincial subject, therefore it is responsibility of the provincial governments to buttress this tier for effective disaster preparedness and response at local level. According to the forecast of Meteorological Department, Sindh and Balochistan are likely to be smacked by abnormal monsoon rains this year. Sindh has a peculiar geography and topography that multiplies its susceptibility manifold. The province receives flows from all upstream rivers. After entering Sindh, the Indus river flows on a ridge with areas outside embankments situated lower than the river bed. This makes it impossible for the escaped flood water to return to the main channel at downstream. Flood plain of Indus, locally called katcho area, gets inundated even with low to medium flood. However, rampant encroachment in the flood plain converts inundation into flood and causes displacement of katcho communities. Between Kashmore and Indus delta, the katcho area of Sindh is spread over more than two million acres. It is roughly divided into the present and the abandoned river channels (600,000 acres), forest lands (450,000 acres), roads, settlements and government structures (50,000 acres) and agriculture land (one million acres). Reliable estimates of the population in Katcho are not available. However, a conservative estimate puts it close to one million. A report of Pakistan Institute of Labour and Research (PILER) mentions Katcho population in Sindh as 3.5 million. This explains a sizeable number of villages and people getting affected almost every year. Last year, peak flow in the Indus was only around 700,000 cusecs; yet more than 3,500 villages were affected in Sindh and Punjab afflicting a population of more than 1.3 million. Considering the design discharges of various barrages, the volume of flow was much less than the critical threshold, yet large areas were
The one-humanity dream
Naseer Memon | June 12, 2016 | Published in The News. The first ever World Humanitarian Summit held in Istanbul on May 23-24, 2016 has brought humanitarian affairs in the global limelight. Attended by 9000 participants from 173 member states of the UN including 55 heads of state and hundreds of other stakeholders, the event is expected to mark a new beginning in a crisis riddled world. In conjunction with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the summit has paved the way for a global consensus on the “one humanity: shared responsibility” paradigm of thought and action. Natural and human-induced disasters coupled with devastating conflicts have made life miserable for millions of inhabitants on this planet. At the outset of 2016, some 125 million people required humanitarian assistance and the number of forcibly displaced people soared to 60 million. Human society is witnessing the highest level of human suffering since the Second World War. Natural disasters have surmounted all previous peaks. According to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (EM-DAT) the world experienced 6,873 natural disasters between 1994 and 2013 that claimed 1.35 million lives i.e. 68,000 lives on average each year. The centre recorded an average of 341 climate-related disasters per annum, up 44 per cent from the 1994-2000 average and well over twice the level in 1980-1989.According to a 2014 report by the United Nations, since 1994, 4.4 billion people have been affected by disasters, which claimed 1.3 million lives and cost US$2 trillion in economic losses. EM-DAT data show that flooding caused the majority of disasters between 1994 and 2013, accounting for 43 per cent of all recorded events and affecting nearly 2.5 billion people. Storms were the second most frequent type of disaster, killing more than 244,000 people and costing US$936 billion in recorded damage. Earthquakes (including tsunamis) killed more people than all other types of disaster put together, claiming nearly 750,000 lives between 1994 and 2013. Tsunamis were the most deadly sub-type of earthquake, with an average of 79 deaths for every 1,000 people affected, compared to four deaths per 1,000 for ground movements. This makes tsunamis almost twenty times more deadly than ground movements. Drought affected more than one billion people between 1994 and 2013, or 25 per cent of the global total. Asia bore the brunt of disasters, with 3.3 billion people affected in China and India alone. Armed conflicts and civil wars are another source of human consternation. A blood-soaked war economy has gripped several parts of the world. Major civil wars increased from 4 in 2007 to 11 in 2014. Syria, Yemen, Libya, Iraq, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Central Africa are among the worst hit countries where violence has ravaged vast populations rendering them hungry and homeless. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 3 million have fled to Syria’s immediate neighbours Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq and 6.5 million are internally displaced within Syria. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) Conflict, violence and natural disasters forced nearly 28 million people to abandon their homes and move somewhere else within their countries in 2014. Currently over 80 per cent of humanitarian funding request is meant for critical life-saving needs in conflict afflicted areas. Almost two thirds of the UN’s peacekeepers and almost 90 per cent of personnel in the UN’s special political missions are working in or on countries mired into high intensity conflicts. The economic and financial cost of conflict and violence in 2014 has been estimated at $14.3 trillion, which is more than 13 per cent of the total global economy. This explains the UN Secretary General’s five-point agenda for humanity. It emerged out of three-year consultative process that involved over 23,000 people in 153 countries. The secretary general called on the world leaders from all sectors of government and society to uphold five core responsibilities (i) prevent and end conflict (ii) respect rules of war (iii) leave no one behind (iv) work differently to end need and (v) invest in humanity. Ban Ki-moon sapiently encapsulated his call by saying “we can close the gap between the world that is and that world that should be. It is in our power, and there is no better time than now.” Undoubtedly, it is an onerous journey that requires unflinchingly sustained political commitment by the member states and a string of symbiotic affirmative actions by the civil society, funding agencies and private sector. National governments and political leadership has to take a central role in achieving this Herculean objective. However, a multi-sectoral reinforcement would be inevitably required to augment the efforts of national governments. Disasters and conflicts entail complex social and human dimensions and the state institutions cannot address them in isolation. Armed conflicts and egregious violence cannot be eliminated completely by only employing sophisticated arsenal. Whereas most of the preposterous violent armed conflicts are triggered by geo-strategic interests that require a greater role from the states and international community, internal strife and violent extremism often stem from social inequalities, discrimination, despotic regimes, lack of rectitude, bad governance and spineless institutions. Civil society can provide invaluable support in such circumstances to eradicate root causes of social unrest and stich harmonious relations among embittered segments of society. Additionally, civil society can bridge the gap between governments and people. As human societies are becoming more complex and the governments are getting circumscribed by a variety of constraints, civil society is emerging as an opportunity to be treated munificently rather than being dismissive and insolent to it. Civil society, maintaining its independent position to represent and safeguard rights of communities, also bolsters government’s efforts to create resilient communities and satisfied citizenry ultimately leading to a stable society. Hence national governments ought to consider civil society as a partner of choice and not a sceptic opponent. Forging mutually rewarding partnerships is the key to deal with the
Festival to celebrate Pakistan’s linguistic diversity
Naseer Memon | February 06, 2016 | Published in The News. ISLAMABAD: As many as 27 of the 70 languages spoken in Pakistan have been declared ‘endangered’, as the speakers of such languages have started relying more on communicational languages. Indus Cultural Forum coordinator Niaz Nadeem emphasised, at a press conference on Friday that such languages must be protected because they are part of Pakistan’s heritage. Mr Nadeem, speaking at Lok Virsa, said the Pakistan Mother Language Literature Festival would be held on February 20 and 21, to coincide with Mother Tongue Day on February 21. He said over 150 writers and poets would participate in the festival, which will feature cultural activities in 15 to 20 languages. “There will be discussions on languages, literature and culture, book launches, mother language symposiums, music events, audio-visual screenings and performances. Mother language book stalls, food courts, cultural exhibitions and a mobile library will also be there,” he said. However, Mr Nadeem added that most of the proceedings on local languages will be held in Urdu, to ensure that everyone is able to understand the messages being put forth. Lok Virsa executive director Dr Fouzia Saeed said, while a large number of people speak Urdu in Pakistan, both Urdu and English are communicational languages. “Our national heritage is in mother tongue. If we fail to protect the languages spoken in Pakistan, our heritage will evaporate along with the languages,” she said. “People should have knowledge about mother languages. A person can learn seven to eight languages easily. So many languages should be taught to people, and they should speak many languages.” Strengthening Participatory Organisation (SPO) chief executive Naseer Memon said languages are the colours of Pakistan, and it was necessary to protect those colours. “Now it has been admitted at the international level that cultural diversity is the strength of nations. We can resist against terrorism and extremism by promoting culture. We have very rich literature, and we have to give a message that all the languages of Pakistan are Pakistani languages,” he said. Matloob Hussain, a representative of the Pakistan Reading Project, said the organisation will also be participating in the event. Mr Hussain told Dawn that children should be interested in reading and writing, and such an event could heighten their interest in such activities. Mazhar Arif, who will manage events on the Saraiki dialect, said the idea behind the festival is to gather people from across the country, in order to strengthen the federation. Fatima Atif, a member of the Hazara community, said cultural promotion programmes have long lasting effects. She hoped that people from various religions and linguistic backgrounds would gather at the festival, allowing tolerance to increase between them and their communities. http://www.dawn.com/news/1237740/festival-to-celebrate-pakistans-linguistic-diversity
Devolution sans development
Naseer Memon | Nov 16, 2015 | Published in The News. The 7th National Finance Commission Award (NFCA) marked a major policy shift that attempted to enhance provincial share in vertical distribution and diversify the distribution criterion for horizontal distribution of resources. Additionally, the federal government reduced its tax collection charges substantially from five to one per cent. These three measures augmented overall share of the provinces in the divisible pool. A policy paper of Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC) on the subject matter provides a comprehensive analysis of benefits accrued to the provinces through the 7thNFCA. The paper reveals that compared to the 6th Award, the provincial share has increased by Rs1228 billion in the 7th NFCA and the federal share has reduced by Rs1148 billion. Punjab and Balochistan were poised to gain Rs320 billion and Rs319 billion whereas Sindh and KP were set to gain Rs290 billion and Rs307 billion respectively. However, tax receipts of both the federal and provincial governments fell below the projections. In contrast, the current expenditure of the federal government and the provinces dwarfed their projections. As a corollary, actual receipts of the provinces under the NFCA fell below the original estimates, yet higher than the previous NFCA. While the provincial share was augmented in the 7th NFCA, its dividends were not adequately transferred to the common citizens. Nevertheless, overall development spending as well as social sector spending in provinces witnessed substantial increase in absolute numbers during the post-7th NFCA years. On the contrary the federal government’s contribution dipped considerably. Pakistan has a chronic deficit of human development. Pakistan’s ranking on human development has always brought ignominy for its rulers and subjects. According to the UNDP’s Human Development Report-2014, Pakistan ranked at 146 out of 185 countries. The country has been bracketed with the low human development countries. Pakistan barely maintained the previous year’s ranking when it shared 146th position with Bangladesh. However, Bangladesh this year moved four rungs up and stood at 142nd position. With such an unceremonious ranking, a nuclear power flaunting atom bomb has been outshined by all other SAARC countries except the war-ravaged Afghanistan. Even Afghanistan has improved its position from 175th in 2012 to 169th in 2014. Similarly, Pakistan is set to miss most of the vital targets under Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). According to the MDG Report 2013, the country is off-track on 23 out of 33 targets. This yawning deficit of human development merits higher spending and effective delivery of social sector services. According to the aforementioned report of SPDC along with increased share in the NFCA, the provinces also mobilised more revenues through a devolved sales tax on services. The 18thAmendment empowered provinces to directly collect sales tax on services. While tax collection by the FBR registered a net decline during the pre and post-7th NFCA years, tax collection by provinces registered an impressive annual growth from 14.2 per cent during pre-7th NFCA to 43.3 during the post-Award years. This enabled provinces to allocate more resources for development. Spending on development is pivotal to generate employment and build productive assets that may fuel economic growth in a society. Thus, it contributes to overall wellbeing of the citizens. Punjab’s annual growth in development spending increased remarkably from 6.5 per cent to 22.3 per cent during pre and post-7th NFCA years. Similarly, Balochistan’s annual growth in development spending increased from 11.1 to 18.7 per cent during the same period. Sindh marginally increased from 24 to 24.8 per cent. However, KP’s annual growth declined from 18.9 to 12 per cent. As percentage of GDP, overall annual development spending increased from 4.7 per cent in 2009-10 to 5.1 per cent in 2013-14. However, as per cent of GDP, sum of the average annual spending of provinces marked a decline from 1.8 to 1.6 per cent. Punjab which depicts impressive annual growth in rupee terms, showed a net decline of average spending from 1 to 0.7 per cent in development sectors as percentage of GDP. Average annual development spending by other provinces almost stagnated as per cent of GDP. This indicates a dismal picture. Provinces still have room to enhance overall development spending. Within overall development budgets, spending on social sector avenues is of critical importance. It directly contributes towards improvement of human development indicators by creating social capital, improving basic social services that are considered as basic human right and reducing poverty that ultimately leads towards socio-political stability in a society. Pakistan is bracketed with the countries with low spending in social sector, mainly in education and health. Overall social sector spending increased from 2.2 to 3.0 per cent of GDP during pre and post-7th NFCA years, which depicts a healthy trend. While the federal government’s average annual spending declined from 0.51 to 0.41 per cent of GDP, the provinces picked up the momentum and registered a robust increase from 1.99 to 2.4 per cent of GDP during these years. All the provinces showed a positive trend in social sector spending as per cent of GDP. The education sector’s overall spending improved from 1.5 to 2.1 per cent of GDP during the pre and post-7th NFCA years. The federal government reduced average annual spending from 0.36 to 0.32 per cent whereas the provinces’ average spending in education sector jacked up from 1.37 to 1.66 per cent during the same period. The same trend was maintained in health sector. The overall health sector spending improved from 0.51 to 0.8 per cent of GDP during the pre and post-7th NFCA years. The federal government’s average annual spending declined from 0.14 to 0.09 per cent of GDP whereas the provinces’ spending in health sector was bolstered from 0.45 to 0.59 per cent of GDP during the same period. All the four provinces depicted positive trend in this regard. Although data shows an increase in the social sector spending by provinces, transfer of new subjects has also put additional burden on their resources. With the adoption of 18th Amendment, 47 subjects of the erstwhile concurrent list were devolved to
Democracy delayed
Naseer Memon | October 18, 2015 | Published in The News. Frequent delays in local government elections expose a perceptible lacuna in the constitution which does not prescribe any timeframe for mandatory local government elections. Establishing and strengthening an empowered local government system is the only way to transformg ‘electocracy’ into a genuine democracy. Otherwise the trudge of democracy may end up in a fatigue. After the federating units wringed out a reasonable degree of autonomy through 18th constitutional amendment, they created a new Islamabad in each province. Read more…
Ten years on…
Naseer Memon | October 4, 2015 | Published in The News. Reevaluating Pakistan’s record of land use planning and quality public and private housing a decade after the October 8, 2005 earthquake. October 8, 2005 evokes poignant memories of a devastating earthquake that jolted northern parts of the country early morning. Ten years on, thoughts of that day continue to shake millions of hearts of those who lost their loved ones in the tragic incident. Read more….
Let the floods flow
Naseer Memon | August 23, 2015 | Published in The News. The recent flood phenomenon merits a deeper dissection rather than a superficial mourning and condemnation. The media remained preoccupied with frantic news coverage and discussion programmes on floods during recent weeks. The government took flak for its inability to take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the 2015 flood. Peak flow in the Indus was around 700,000 cusecs yet more than 3,500 villages were affected in Sindh and Punjab afflicting a population of more than 1.3 million. Considering the design discharges of various barrages, the quantum of flow was much less than the critical threshold, yet large areas were inundated. Read more….